More than a dozen colleges and universities in New York state are among those most likely to “perish” amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new analysis.

According to the Boston Business Journal, experts have predicted 10% to 20% of U.S. higher education institutions may be forced to close permanently within the next 12 months. Many colleges were struggling financially before Covid-19, and now many face a loss of revenue if fewer students are on campus to pay for room and board.

Scott Galloway, a New York University marketing professor, has published a blog post outlining which schools are expected to “perish, struggle, survive or thrive” due to Covid-19. He listed 437 colleges and universities, comparing their tuition, endowment, percentage of international students, and other data from the U.S. Department of Education, US News & World Report, and Niche.com’s Student Life Scores.

Galloway then divided schools into four quadrants based on their “vulnerability score,” warning those with low endowments and dependence on international students’ tuition and fees — especially if students decide to wait a semester or year before returning even if their schools reopen for in-person learning this fall.

Nearly 90 schools are in danger of perishing, according to Galloway’s analysis, including five in Upstate New York and 14 statewide:

*Adelphi University
*Bard College
*Daemen College
*Fordham University
*Hofstra University
*Long Island University
*Pace University
*Sarah Lawrence College
*Skidmore College
*St. John’s University
*St. Lawrence University
*The New School
*The Sage Colleges
*Yeshiva University

Some schools like Cornell University, Hamilton College and SUNY-ESF are expected to “thrive,” while Syracuse University and the University of Rochester will “survive,” according to the analysis. Cornell, for example, sees an average endowment of $292,416 per full-time student, and 10% of its students are international; SU has a higher vulnerability score due to an average endowment of $69,761 and a student body that’s 14% international.

Galloway, whose data is not peer-reviewed, has criticized many schools’ reopening plans as coronavirus continues to rise in many states.

“Small college towns across the country are being set up for disaster. Distancing, plexiglass, quaranteams, reconfigured dorms, A/B class shifts … all efforts taken in good faith, doubtlessly endorsed by medical advisors. But on-campus measures will only be effective with adherence to off-campus measures. It’s delusional to think students will keep 6 feet apart,” he wrote.

“The bucolic, culturally rich college towns across America may pay a steep price. Many are not prepared for a surge of infections... Other at-risk cohorts include cafeteria workers, maintenance crews, security guards, librarians, bartenders, cab drivers, their spouses and family members, and anyone else unfortunate enough to have made the once perfectly reasonable decision to live in a college town. And if/when there is an outbreak, the healthcare infrastructure of these university towns could be overrun in a matter of weeks, if not days.”

Others disputed Galloway’s analysis, including those at some of the schools on the “perish” list.

“Turning those trend predictions into a ranking system is a perilous business and his prognostications are unsound,” Christopher Ames, president of the Sage Colleges, told the Albany Business Review.

Elmore Alexander, dean emeritus of Bridgewater State University’s Ricciardi College of Business, told the Business Journal that the schools most likely to struggle or perish had problems before Covid-19.

“The cracks in the business models of the schools in the ‘struggle’ and ‘perish’ cells were already there and had been for the past several years. Coronavirus has just turned the cracks into chasms,” Alexander said.

Source: Geoff Herbert/Syraucuse.com

Date Posted: Monday, July 27th, 2020 , Total Page Views: 1876